For awhile I've been wondering about the double assassination that plunged Almeric into anarchy. Who did it? How did they do it? Why? Or even if the two assassinations were committed by the same party? Does anyone have theories or is it just another unexplained tragic chapter like the mysterious death of Aeorin or the disappearance of the Duke Conrad's grandfather?

(Of course we eventually learned that Aeorin was taken out by the Order of Sarishian Knives. We don't have a perfect guess for the old Duke of Tralia but Ymandragore tops my list of suspects. Maybe we'll eventually discover who did the "Almeric Caper" as well.)

Arcanis being Arcanis I assume one party is responsible for both assassinations. With the deliberate goal of undermining Almeric.

One way to start talking intelligently about who did it is to look at parties that have the capability. Both figures presumably had high levels of security but perhaps their security was essentially "conventional" and over time someone could find chinks in it. Who could beat that?

1) Well we should put the Cadacians on the list. The val Borda family and the Twilight Warriors.
2) The Sarishian Knives also make the cut. I think it almost feels like them.
3) It seems to me Ghost Scales are also sufficiently stealthy maybe sneak into a locked room in a castle.
4) Ymandragore's agents could ...
5) Presumably the Gray Crones with their weird mirror magic could
6) Any other really powerful being or organization like the Court of Uhxbractit (or the Silence, the High Elorii, or even Sanctorum or the True Kio ...though its hard to see how some of these people would care about events in Almeric).

Another view is to ask who benefited from chaos in Almeric.

1) The Infernals. The val'Tensens largely sit out the Crusade. Milandir has trouble on its Southern border.
2) Canceri. Milandir's Attention is drawn to it's Southern border.
3) Ymandragore. In the chaos its harvesters face little to no organized opposition.
4) The Silence. val'Tensen are neutered and/or paid back for what happened with the Reluctance of Hurrian. Possibly disrupt travel routes into and out of the Blessed Lands, an area of interest to them.
5) Abessios. Sorta. Coryan has to spend some attention to its northern border.
6) Other? Enemies of the val'Tensen? Does the chaos benefit someone with an axe to grind with the val'Tensen? The Grey Crones?

Is there anywhere with overlap between the two?

1) The Cadicians? No skin in this game. Could have been hired to do it ... but scruples suggest a commission from unsavory individuals might be refused. Not sure there is a plausible way for the Silence or the infernals to hire them for example.
2) Sarishian Knives also have no skin in the game. Could have been hired if you know of them (most don't). Fewer scruples.
3) Ghost Scales have no skin in the game. Could have been hired. No significant scruples.
4) The anarchy is a boon for harvesters IMO. On the other hand this would be a first for Ymandragore. Seems unlikely to me.
5) Possible motive and ability. Significant suspects.
6) Uhxbractit engineering the two assassinations appeals to me. On the other hand its not clear to me that he has agents that could reach Almeric. Other Candidates seem like dark horses at best. (Even though the High Elorii or True Kio probably have the ability to make something like this happen I'd be outright shocked to discover that they had a hand in it).

If I had to guess now: With the information that I have I would suspect that the Assasinations were cooked up either by the val'Tensen's enemies in the Cauldron (ie Grey Crones) or the Infernals devised the assassinations. If it was the infernals of Uhxbractit's court, then they probably hired the Sarishian Knives or Ghost Scales to carry it out. Why would individual Ghost Scales take the contract? Simply for the money. Why would the Sarishian Knives? As part of an understanding not to attack Canceri...which apparently saw ZERO action during the Crusade despite miles of borders with the unsealed lands.

What do others think?

If it was orchestrated by a known faction, I'd pin it on the Grey Crones. After all, they lost a lot of influence over the val'Tensens and their souls when the family was 'pardoned' from their past infraction. Seems like something they'd do.

The Feathermen definitely didn't have anything to do with it...

Internal politics? In the chaos is there someone who could take advantage to make a name for themselves?

Deus ex Machima? A lone crazy did it so that Henry & co. could set up the stage for some future plan that has yet to be revealed (i.e. it happened because it had to)

Co-incidence? Both deaths happened for differing reasons and through different parties and it's the nature of humanity to draw links? (spurned lovers, ancient threats made good, sheer bad luck)

Unlucky? At least on of the deaths was not meant to happen, they were merely being warned and things went wrong or the target was someone nearby and they got in the way?

Some kind of greater power that is just playing games to see how the Val react when poked?

I am a bit surprised no faction(s) from Coryan were listed for consideration...I can see where it would benefit from keeping Almeric from unifying and becoming stable. It'd be another neighboring country to have to handle/manipulate.

I do not see how a chaotic Almeric helps Coryan in any way, beyond it keeps a neighbour weak.

1) Almeric has become a nest of brigandship, which HAS to spill out into Milandir and Coryan.
2) Merchants and Pilgrims are at much greater risk with a nation in civil war.
3) Instead of influencing a specific court, Coryan has to influence dozens of warlords, spending money on keeping them 'in line' when they could simply be killed tomorrow. I'm sure Coryan is actually losing a lot of money there.


Overall, I would discount either Milandir or Coryan as a nation, though I wouldn't be overly surprised if it weren't a faction from within one of them.

Rick,

I don't see the Coryani Empire wanting an unstable neighbor. It typically requires more vigilance and resources to ensure things don't spill over. Also, at the time of the assassination, there was still a good chance that the Coryani Empire could have had a strong ally in the new Almeric which would have stabilized the border and allowed them to shift resources away from that front. That said, there could certainly be a faction that would want the Emperor's / Legions' attention that way rather than somewhere else.

I don't buy into the Deus ex Machina argument. Henry's too good of a storyteller to do that. If he wanted a particular end goal he would ensure that there was a great reason why it happened.

I also don't agree with coincidence. If one of the leaders were struck by lightning and died while the other had a freak horseback riding incident and broke their neck, we could be talking about whether it was murder or coincidence. If there's an assassin, it's planned not coincidence.

Now, I could see the unlucky item you mentioned where there was supposed to be an attempt on both leaders with one surviving so no blame could be laid and it went badly. I don't see that being orchestrated by one of the val'Tensens though. Treachery, guile and manipulations are accolades or epithets you save for val'Bordas and val'Mehans typically.

In terms of who planned it, the Grey Crones, the Infernals and Canceri are all strong choices. I wouldn't remove Canceri from strong consideration just because the Sarishan Knives may or may not have a strong interest.

With a sweep of his...

Hat

I think a unified country would be much more costly to deal with than pockets or wanna-be's. A legion or two could be dispatched to deal with any of these pretenders pretty easily, if needed.

Maybe those that were off'd were not going to play nicely in the mercantile arena so they were removed.

I agree though, and originally mentioned, that is factions from within that would be most likely.

I can also see another val family wanting to keep the val'Tensens 'down'.

But in general, I don't think we have anywhere near enough information to do anything other than wildly guess. There's about 3-7 assumptions that form the basis of any theory, and any one of them can fall utterly apart if one of those in inaccurate.

Damn you Henry for being so vague!

I blame the gnomes.